Here's what the nets saw today...

By: Larry Swing  

Copyright 2005 Larry Swing

To readers of “What the nets saw today…”: Many of you may have missed some of the early articles in the Power Swing Primer series, but no worries. These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions. Please, however, read the disclaimer below. This article is used for educational purposes, as are the Power Swing Primer articles.



The Fed Funds rate went up, stocks went down, and nothing much changed yesterday. Again it appears that certain mining and energy stocks are popping up on the horizon again, along with a few of the internet names we have tracked previously (NTES jumped up and showed up on the net screens). Two other names, one energy name (ARD) and one an internet wedding services company (KNOT) showed up, but popped up well past their pivots. KNOT has spent most of its life until just recently as a Bulletin Board stock, so the length of the model is pretty small. Both of these are strong earnings growers, but it might not be wise to chase in this volatile environment. We will continue to track them and look for other entry points.



We are still a little concerned about commodity pricing (coal and natural gas) as we are in a period of price consolidation, but the nets are starting to like energy exploration and mining stocks again in general. Everything else, however, is a mixed bag. Even though it appears some insurers (like HRH yesterday) may have room to move higher. The same conditions apply to some of the ADRs (like CX, which has moved about 6% since it popped up on our screens). It is still a very volatile trading environment, however, so caution is still advised.



Here is the chart of the $COMPQ we promised yesterday, with a little November 2005 data added in. As you can see (reference yesterday’s charts) the momentum is still slightly negative on a monthly basis. Perhaps, if the Fed will complete its tightening phase, there will be room for more upside, but for now, the downside should also be respected, particularly if the Fed over does it (which it has done many times in the past).

Here is what the nets saw today:

BAP 21.19/1 84.6% (short trading history and way past it’s pivot based on yesterday’s trading…perhaps can be positioned on an intraday pullback).

NTES 3.39/1 66.7% (again, same problem as with BAP regarding the pivot, it might be possible to position an intraday pullback)

ECA 3.18/1 88.9%

JH 3.11/162.5%

BVN 2.91/1 83.3%

That’s it for now. We are still in a very dicey and indecisive trading environment. We are continuing to dig out nuggets and pockets of strength, and as we find them, we will bring them out. The two mentioned previously that are not in the final screen list are definitely candidates to follow.

...thanks for the trust you've shown in our team. MrSwing Trading Team


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by MrSwing Trading Team - Nov 2, 2005
http://www.mrswing.com/


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